The Future of Census Records for Genealogists: Will Privacy and Cost Eliminate Them?

Concerns about privacy and cost are threatening the detailed census records that we and prior generations of genealogists have relied upon as an essential tool in our research. The primary value of census returns are that the individuals surveyed are identifiable, the information is highly detailed, and an overwhelming percentage of the surveyed population is included. However, in recent years, these features have been threatened by census “opt-in” rules such as those adopted in Australia and Canada, partly out of concerns regarding individual privacy. Other threats to the traditional census, such as “statistical sampling”, are fueled by the rising cost of conducting a census in a time of increasingly tight national budgets. While genealogists rely on census information to learn about their family, the socioeconomics of the time they lived, etc., will the trend toward “opt-in” and discussions of “statistical sampling” rob future genealogists of this precious tool?

Census as a Primary Genealogy Tool

Census is a primary genealogy tool — we rely upon it to inform us of who lived where at what time and with whom. The census provides a snapshot of our ancestors, frozen in time as of the date on which the enumerator visited their households. Census has been around since biblical times. In Numbers 1:2, Moses is told to take a census of all the people of Israel and record the names of all the men 20 years old and over who will be subject to military service. Census recording men for military service is not unique to the Bible: the Romans took a census for similar reasons as did Napoléon Bonaparte as he conquered European countries for the same reason as well as for taxing purposes. In Exodus 30:12, God commands a per capita tax to be paid with the census for the upkeep of the Tabernacle — the first “poll tax”. A “poll tax” is a tax of a portioned, fixed amount applied to an individual in accordance with the census as opposed to a percentage of income.

Census information is only as good as the person providing the information. Have we seen other documents with conflicting information on ages, occupations, relationships? Of course we have. Censuses are no different. Not only may the information provider be purposefully or inadvertently providing inaccurate information (age of first born son to avoid conscription) — the census taker may not understand what is being said to them — this is especially true for census takers in a country different than the respondent’s country of origin where language may become an issue of understanding by both the respondent and the scribe.

Census Has Been Around for Centuries

According to Wikipedia, census has been around for centuries: from the Bible to 3050 BC to ancient Rome and the Han Dynasty in China. National censuses vary from country to country. The types of information, how universal they are, the methodology techniques employed and the frequency of the enumeration all differ. Many international data websites offer links to national statistical offices and international statistical agencies. If you are looking for a particular country’s census information, a good way to find it is to Google that country and their national statistical office. An alternative source is the U.S. Library of Congress where the most recent censuses might also be housed in the appropriate area studies reading room, i.e., African and Middle Eastern, Asian, European, or Hispanic, or search on the Library’s online catalog — for general access go to: http://tinyurl.com/psy69ds. For official census year publications, browse: [name of country] “census”.

Revision Lists

As genealogists we may be familiar with “revision lists” (in Russian: revizkie skazki) for territories ruled by the Russian Empire in the 18^th and 19^th centuries. Revision lists only enumerated those individuals subject to taxation and for identifying men to draft into the army. Therefore, the intent was not to enumerate the full population and many were not included such as nobility, soldiers, civil servants and more. The first such census was by Peter the Great (Pyotr Velikiy) who ruled Russia and introduced the person-person counting system. (See article by Boris Feldblyum in Avotaynu Vol XIV, Number 3 Fall 1998). In Lithuania, previously part of the Russian Empire, they used revision lists, but after 1858 they were called Family Lists. Many Eastern European countries required a resident to be registered in a specific town — and if they moved they might be listed in the town of residence rather than the town of registration.

Why Genealogists Use Census as Part of Their Genealogy “Tool Kit”

As genealogists we owe a lot to Napoléon. As he conquered countries when he marched across Europe, he established the requirement for recording vital records — birth, marriage and death records as well as requiring a census be taken. The purpose for the census was for taxation and military conscription — but centuries later we — as genealogists — are the beneficiaries of this information.

Genealogists have been accustomed to the wealth of information included in census records regarding our ancestors: name, age, address, marital status, number of children, occupation, literacy, education, immigration status, generational family members, social economic parameters such as servants or borders living with the primary family members and more. All of the people enumerated in the household provide clues for further research. For example, if the family has servants they probably were “well-off”. If the teenage children are no longer in school but listed as working or no longer live at home but are servants listed with other families the families probably were poorer and needed financial assistance from the children.

Gordon Watts of the Canada’s Census Campaign in 2006 (March 31, 2006 email on Canada Census Campaign Mailing List — Rootsweb.com) wrote other about uses of census information:

• Determination of age eligibility for pensions, etc. when no birth certificates or other sources are available.
• Determination of descendancy to settle estates when no will has been found.
• Provide clues regarding genetically-inherited diseases (it’s is also important in obtaining vital records for this purpose).

Unfortunately, we are seeing many of these useful data elements being eliminated from the current versions of census — due to various governments’ decisions to save money. (See below).

Census was not universal at first: as we saw in the bible only men over 20 years old were counted. Later countries added families then women, and — those who may not have been considered “full” residents or citizens. Today, in most countries that take census counts, it is a universal census. The frequency of census varies by countries — many do them every ten years, but some may have special censuses more frequently. The United Nations recommends a population census be taken every ten years. Embargo periods for access also vary by country — for example in the U.S. its 72 years, Canada 92 years, Australia 100 years and in the UK 100 years.

Today, censuses are essential for governments to know about population distribution for planning of services for the residents of an area, including education, health services, welfare, infrastructure, research and more. Governments use the census data as the basis to allocate funding. In some countries — including the United States — census is used for the official counts to apportion the number of elected representatives to regions.

Dismantling of the Census

However, we are seeing some countries consider or actually start to dismantle the census as we know it and instead use sampling — where information is obtained only from a subset of a population. It is expensive for governments to do a census — not only personnel costs of enumerators and office staff, but computer maintenance and technology infrastructure updating and maintenance. These are the reasons we are learning that some countries are actively considering moving away from the census and the types of questions (short form versus long form) as we have known it. (Both short-form and long form are part of a sampling methodology — where a percentage of the sample receive a questionnaire with more questions — the long form — than the rest of the sampled population- which receive the shorter form with fewer questions.)

Australia

In an interview with Peter Martin in The Age, he talks about the Abbott Government in Australia which may also abandon the census, replacing it with a smaller sample survey. Australia has had a census every five years since 1911. The most recent census, in 2011, marked 100 years of data collection, providing a century’s worth of information about where Australians came from, where they lived, what type of families they had and how they worked. The next Australia census is expected in August 9, 2016 — however, costs are a concern. In 2011 it cost $440 million and they expect the 2016 to be more expensive because of changes in information technology. The Bureau of Statistics needs several hundred million dollars to update the Bureau’s aging technology systems. To hear the interview and read about the census retention pro and cons see: http://tinyurl.com/mcqpmjo.

An intense 20-year political campaign by Australasian Federation of Family History Organizations (AFFHO) before the 2001 survey, resulted in a complete reversal on a long standing Federal Government policy to destroy census returns and publish numerical statistics only. Before 2001, no census survey of national coverage in Australia survived since 1828. 2006 was the first Australian census where the resident had the option to complete it electronically.

Canada

Canada has a 92-year embargo on their census- and in 2006 they went to the voluntary “opt-in” release — see below. In 2015 there was an attempt in the Canadian Parliament to reinstate the census “long-form”–but it was defeated. See: http://lists.rootsweb.ancestry.com/index/intl/CAN/CANADA-CENSUS-CAMPAIGN.html

New Zealand

New Zealand is also considering replacing its census using administrative data from organizations such as the tax office and other administrative offices. They are also considering conducting a census every ten years rather than every five years.

United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) did a study Beyond 2011, questioning whether there should even be a census for England and Wales in 2021 (the next scheduled decennial census). England and Wales has conducted a decennial census beginning in 1801 — except in 1941 due to the war — but did a “National Registration” September 29,1939. In 1944, a Royal Commission on Population was appointed by royal warrant to examine the postwar population trends in Great Britain. The Commission made arrangements to take a sample family census in January 1946 — enumeration took place between 21 January and 16 February 1946 with questions concerning marital status, date of birth, date of marriage, and if applicable its termination, date of birth of every live born child, number of children who had not yet reached their 16^th birth date and husband’s occupation (The General Register Office Scotland (GROS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) are responsible for the census in Scotland and Northern Ireland.)

In 2014 the UK Statistics Authority announced that the ONS’s National Statistician recommended to the Board of the UK Statistics Authority a predominantly online census in 2021 supplemented by the further use of administrative and survey data. The Board announced they have accepted and endorsed this recommendation. (To read the announcement and letter the UK Statistics Authority wrote to the Minister for the Cabinet Office go to: http://tinyurl.com/mwsgq7p). The Rt. Hon Francis Maude MP Minister for the Cabinet Office, Paymaster General wrote to the UK Statistics Authority that they are agreeing with the recommendation for a predominantly online census in 2021 supplemented by further use of administrative and survey data, however, the support for this approach is only for 2021 census and not future consensus.

Information on the Scotland 2021 census which plans a predominately online census-may be found at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2014/plans-for-a-census-in-scotland-2021

United States

There has been a decennial census taken in the United States since 1790. Expansion beyond population count began with President James Madison who along with Congress ensured that the U.S. Constitution would permit additional information to be collected on Americans to adapt to public measures of the community.

In the 20^th century the “long” and “short” forms of the U.S. Census divided the questions. Most of us receive the “short” form to complete with basic questions about age, sex, race, household relationship, owner/renter status etc. After 2000 the “long” form became the American Community Survey (ACS). Not only is the “short-from” information basic information included, but also detailed questions regarding population and housing information. The Bureau of the Census selects a random sample of addresses to be included in each annual ACS. Each address has a 1:480 chance of being selected — with no one address being selected more frequently than once every five years. About 3.5 million addresses each year or approximately 295,000 addresses a month across the country are selected. First, the Census Bureau notifies the household they are selected then they send instructions by mail for completing the census survey online or mail it back by mail. There is follow-up by mail and telephone and where necessary personal visits. It is mandatory to complete the ACS as it is part of the decennial census which is required by the US Constitution. No address may be removed from the ACS.

2015 U.S. Census Trial

Currently, the US Census Bureau is testing the possibility of an on-line census for 2020 with a 5-year census to determine compliance. There are two sites: Savannah, Georgia area and Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix area). The Savannah area includes neighboring counties in Georgia and South Carolina.

The purpose is to further test methods of encouraging householders to respond online — no more the census taker coming to the home — except for follow-up. According to the Census Bureau, they are evaluating new technology for collecting and processing census responses. They will also be testing a new field management structure to see if it improves the efficiency and effectiveness of operations to follow up with those households that don’t complete their census test during the self-response phase. Lastly, they will test how well information already provided to the government (existing government data sources), such as tax forms or other records, could help fill the gaps in our data collection by non-responding households. Personally, this last objective is a concern, as it is another example of taking other information to supplant the census.

Here are the types of questions the 2015 US Census is asking:

• Address and phone number as well as email address and a security question
• Whether the person owned or rented, and if they had a mortgage.
• List everyone living in the house with their relationship.
• If anyone was staying there on April 1 (the date of the census) who doesn’t usually live there?
• Birth date and year born but not location.
• Ethnicity- which may require further nationality questions depending on the answer; more than one nationality/ethnicity answer is possible,
• Part-time residence-if someone lived in another household which included grandparents, joint custody etc.
• Possible alternative living arrangements: nursing homes, prison, seasonal homes etc. and the address of the alternative location.

Note there are no questions about citizenship status, immigration dates, literacy, or education. The types of questions that are being asked in the 5-year census pale in comparison to what we as genealogists are used to in the 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, 1940 censuses, but we saw that with the paucity of genealogically-relevant questions in the 2010 census.

The Census Bureau is also planning a National Content Test (NCT) to be taken in the fall of 2015 — with “census” day being September 1 but the test being taken anytime from August-November 2015. The key content to be tested in the 2015 NCT is related to within-household coverage, relationship, and race and Hispanic origin. To read more about the 2015 Census trial go to: http://catalog2.loc.gov/webvoy.htm

Opt-In Censuses

Today, we are seeing some countries — Australia and Canada — provide the option of “opting-in” meaning the person has the option to permit their information to be made public after a specific embargo period. This is a major departure from the historical census which went from house to house to enumerate all the inhabitants — and after the embargo date all information was made public.

Canada’s “voluntary” opt-in short-form census dropped the participation to just over 68 percent from 94 percent. The data in the short form has been described by statisticians as “garbage”. The first census that was impacted was the 2006 census. The informed consent provision was part of a compromise by the Canadian Parliament to get the 1911 and later census’s released after 92 years. The “informed consent” provision is to be studied for two census cycles to see what impact it has. A bill currently (2015)- before the Parliament, C-625, would extend the opt-in requirement past the 2011 census.

Australia added the “opt-in” feature in 2001. Participation in the Australian census is mandatory. In 2001 the opt-in participation was 54 percent. In 2006 and 2011 census 50—60 percent agreed to have their information retained (Archives and Societal Provenance: Australian Essays by Michael Piggott). While this is better than the long-practice of the Australian government destroying the census — such a poor percentage of retention does not give the future genealogists or historians a universal perspective of the Australians during that time frame.

Census is also a political document. In the United States we saw some states object to the results believing they did not receive their “fair share” of appropriations if the numbers did not tally to what the state governments believe they were owed. As a result some states, such as New York, conducted censuses between the federal decennial census. New York State took censuses in 1905, 1915 and 1925 — a great genealogical “bonus” for us to get a 5-year rather than 10-year look of who was living where and with whom.